The Impact of National Rice Policy on Rice Sufficiency and the Welfare of Consumer and Paddy Farmer )*

This research was a study of attitude of rice supply and demand under specific rice policy. The aim of the research are: (a) knowing the impact of national rice policy on rice sufficiency in 2020; (b) knowing the impact of national rice policy on surplus of consumer in 2020; (c) knowing the impact of national rice policy on surplus of paddy farmer in 2020; and (d) making the best alternative national rice policy for rice sufficiency and the welfare of consumer and paddy farmer in 2020.

Research covered national scale, using secondary time series data between 1970 - 2004. Method of research was descriptive and analitic. Method of analysis is Two Stage Least Square (2-SLS) by using Statistical Analysis System (SAS ) program as a software.
Result of the research shows that in 2020, if there were no changes on rice policy, Indonesia will be: (a) turn to deficit of sufficiency 171,120 ton . Policy which could overcome the deficit of sufficiency are widening harvesting area at least 10% or increasing land productivity will at least 4,9 ton/ha. Price of rice and rough rice will decreasing in 2020, so it increase surplus of consumer Rp 8.410,001,230 but decrease surplus of paddy farmer is Rp 1,419,042,764.
Rice policy winch cause the worst impact to paddy farmer is wiping out floor price and tariff in the same time with increasing harvesting area, productivity and fertilizer price because the price of rice and rough rice will be fall deeply as a simultaneous impact of increasing domestic production and import.
The best alternative national rice policy for rice sufficiency and the welfare of consumer and paddy farmer is widening harvesting area 10% and increasing land productivity to 5 ton/ha, fertilizer price 10% , floor price 12 % and specific tariff 15%. The impact of this policy are: (a) surplus of sufficiency 1,368,681 ton, it is enough for reducing import dependency ratio; (b) increasing surplus of consumer Rp 412,053,296; and (c) decreasing surplus of paddy farmer Rp 56,883,216.

)*By: Ir.Henik Prayuginingsih, MP and Hendri Widotono, S.Pt.,MP